First weekInterpret and trace.
We confirm the change, scope, candidate exposure paths and public-evidence boundary.
Shield Reckoning
Exposure Ranking
Interpret one foreign-market change, trace where it could affect products, suppliers, markets or routes, then rank the exposures that warrant action.
Fixed Fee, Money-Back.No surprise invoices. Our work earns its fee, or we refund it.
Every Claim Cited.Public-source evidence behind every claim.
Models You Keep.Advanced analytical frameworks, yours to re-run and audit.
Adversarial Review.Every verdict challenged and verified before delivery.
The decision
What changed, where could it land and which exposures matter most?
Use this when one change may touch several parts of an overseas position and the board needs a cited trace plus a defensible order of attention.
What we need from you
- The market change or threat
- The product, market and route scope to examine
- Known supplier, component or packaging dependencies
- Revenue and margin context
- Leadership priorities and risk appetite
What you keep
Outputs built to travel beyond the project.
The recommendation is delivered with the evidence, assumptions and decision logic needed for leadership review.
01
Change and exposure trace
A cited view of how the change could reach products, components, suppliers, markets or routes.
02
Ranked exposure map
A transparent order showing the relative materiality of each exposure.
03
Decision model
The retained weighting and ranking model, with assumptions visible.
04
Top-exposure briefing
What moves first, what can wait and what evidence would change the order.
How the answer is built
A method fitted to the shape of the decision.
The Signal Method interprets the cited public evidence and traces candidate exposure paths before AHP weights the agreed criteria and TOPSIS ranks the resulting exposures.
Every material conclusion is cited. Evidence gaps remain visible, and a separate adversarial pass challenges weak claims and untested assumptions before human sign-off.
Read the full methodologyHow the work runs
Three weeks. Three beats.
Middle weekScore consistently.
Each exposure is assessed on the same cited evidence base, with gaps kept visible.
Final weekRank and challenge.
The model ranks the exposures, the result is challenged through adversarial review and the decision pack is delivered.
Good fit when
- One change could affect several products, suppliers, markets or routes
- The board needs an exposure trace plus an order of attention
- Response budget should follow the evidence
Not designed for
- Choosing the final response
- Legal interpretation or a full compliance audit
- Continuous monitoring
Commercial clarity
From £4,250. Three weeks.
The scope, fee, evidence boundary and exclusions are agreed before work starts. Fixed-fee project engagements are covered by the three-month money-back guarantee under the signed terms.
Shield bundle
From £12,000. Save £4,500.
Includes Exposure Ranking, Response Decision and Response Plan.
Use it when the issue is urgent and you need one route from interpretation and exposure tracing to a controlled response plan.
One intake and one current evidence base connect the ranking, decision, remediation and maintenance design.
Discuss the Shield bundleQuestions before you commission
Clear boundaries produce better work.
We confirm the commercial question, scope, evidence boundary, inputs, timetable, fee and exclusions in writing. Work begins only after the engagement terms are agreed.
No. This engagement uses deeply triangulated secondary research. If the decision needs primary research, we identify that gap rather than presenting an inference as evidence.
Whenever a model, assumptions register or working file is part of the output, we hand it over with the controls needed to revisit the answer.
No. We surface relevant commercial and regulatory evidence, but specialist advice remains outside scope and should be obtained where the decision requires it.
Next step
Start a conversation.
Bring us a market question the leadership team cannot yet answer. We will tell you whether it fits a defined product, what evidence it needs, and what the fixed fee would be. If it does not fit, we will say so.